SCENARIO PLANNING

This is an exercise to help plan for the future, rather than reacting to each crisis which comes along. It is not a way of making predictions, but it is a way to be prepared for situations which might have been unexpected, by opening up new perpectives – the ‘aha’ experience. Steps 1-6 are best done with around 10-15 people, so in a large presbytery this could be done by a committee, or different groups could address different questions. 

1. Identify a focal issue or decision to be made, eg
* what new forms of ministry should we try out in the presbytery? (remit. 7)
* how should we equip churches for worship, care and mission? (remit. 15)
* what should be included in our ‘regional needs plan’? (remit. 29)

2. Identify driving forces of change which will affect the decision, eg within the bounds of the presbytery there might be economic regeneration or decline; interest in spirituality might increase along with disillusionment with material wealth, or it might be seen as dangerous and irrelevant.

3. Circle the driving forces which are almost certain to take place, for example that the baby-boom generation will age. These factors should then feature in all scenarios. 

4. Choose two important but very uncertain driving forces. Draw a diagram like the one on the right, with two axes, one for each driving force. Take the potential extreme cases of the driving forces and write them at the end of the axes. This creates four quadrants, on which you can base four possible scenarios, A, B, C and D. 

5. Divide into four small groups and allocate one scenario to each. In the groups, flesh out the scenarios as vivid, detailed stories. It doesn’t matter how unlikely it seems: the object is to see possibilities. 

6. At the next presbytery meeting, present the scenarios, then in small groups consider what the results of different courses of action would be in each scenario. What strategies would be effective in any scenario? What would it be like to live in each of those futures? 

7. Report back to the whole presbytery. 

8. You’ll find you have created a common language, in which proposals can be considered from a wider range of perspectives – but at the same time ones which everyone understands.